Carey and Sharon  Rosenzweig

Carey and Sharon Rosenzweig

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Thornberry Woods Vaughan 4th quarter house real estate sales report 2022



Patterson Vaughan Real Estate 4TH Quarterly Market Analysis 2022
Including: Thornberry Woods, Valley of Thornhill, Thornhill Woods and Dufferin Hills

 4th Quarters   2018   2019 2020 2021 2022  2018/17  2019/18 2020/19 2021/20 2022/21
House Sales 125 140 221 188 83 +14% +12% +58% -15% -56%
Average Home Price $1,145,688 $1,171,364 $1,306,096 $1,751,155 $1,596,800 -8% +2% +12% +34% -9%
Inventory 150 66 50 15 41 -12% -56% -24% -70% +273%
New Listings 355 193 288 209 140 -21% -46% +49% -27% -33%
Days on Market 27 29 23 11 19 +17% +7% -21% +-52% +173%
% of Sold Price to Listing Price 99% 98% 100% 109% 100% +1% -1% +2% +9% -9%

Real Estate Market Synopsis

Ideally when we want to compare how a market is doing we should compare it to the same time period of another year, i.e. fall market to fall market. Therefore, we have to compare how this quarter of the year is doing compared to the last quarter of 2021. Traditionally the spring market is the best market of the year, as I think this year's was and the summer market gets slower due to it being a holiday time and kids being off school. The fall/winter market usually picks up again as routines go back to normal, however our fall/winter market doesn't reflect this as this has not been a typical year.

When we look at the average number of sale, they decreased by about 56% from 188 sales to 83 sales; a decrease of 105 homes on average sold. The average price also went down by 9% from  $ 1,751,155 to $1,596,800 or a decrease of approximately $154,000.  Inventory of homes increased from 15 homes available to 41 homes and new listings when down from 209 listings to 140 new listings this year. The average amount of new listings dropped by 33% and the inventory of listings increase by 273%. This means a lot more inventory of homes and in turn a lot more choice. The length of time it took to sell a home increase by 8 days, from 11 days to 19 days and the percentage of selling price compared to the listing price decreased from 109%  to 100% meaning the market started to shift to more of a balanced market.  Usually when inventory or supply goes down prices go up, in this case there was and increase of inventory, however there was also a drop in new listings and prices did go down. Sales probably would have gone up also if there was more inventory, but you can't sell what's not there. Also inventory or active listings are usally those that are over or have had price adjustments. 
It would appear that in 2022 Thornberry Woods like most of the GTA had an unusually year end due in turn to the multiple consecutive months of interest rate hikes. We consumers af uncertain of what seem to be going on or what the future has instored, they usually remain on the side lines and wait to see what will happen and what they should do. Usually when there are 4 or less homes listed for every sale it is considered to be a sellers market, when there are between 4-6 homes available for every sale it is considered to be a balance market, and over 6 houses available for sale it is considered to be a buyers market. This year would definately have been a sellers market in both the GTA and Patterson, but due to the unknown and unprecedent rate hikes it did not appear to be a sellers market. In this area there were around 2 house available for every house sold.

The housing market in the new year will only improve if more homes get listed and rates stop increasing resulting in comsumer confidence increases. Again you can't sell what's not available to sell and never in history have we had so many interest rate hike in such a short time .

Here are a few facts that we see and know:

  • 2021 set a new record for the highest average price on record, highest amout of sales and lowest inventory, which was not broken this year.
  • Emmigration will continues at record levels with approximately 1,500,000 people expected to immigrate in the next 5 year and they will need to have a place to live.
  • There is a shortage of homes and trades to build homes, therefore housing can not be built fast enough for the demand
  • Rental rates have increased significantly due to the housing shortage.
  • The boomers' kids have grown up (kids born from 1977 to 1994 which number around 9.2 million in Canada in 2011) they are ready to buy real estate.
  • Real Estate over the long term is a sound investment that continues to increase.
  • Real Estate has been paying a higher return than investing you money in the bank.

Toronto offers an ideal location for many, close to everything and very central. However many people have discovered working remotely they don't need to be in the city's core and live in small quarters, they can now spread out and live in larger homes closer to the north end. Now is the ideal time to invest and buy real estate while other are waiting on the side lines. That move up home as become more affordable. Townhouses, semis, smaller detached and larger condos with parking are always in demand for first time buyers. The return on your money invested in a bank is extremely low, so why not invest in housing.  It is a sound investment!  We work the area and often know of homes coming out for sale before they are listed on the market. There are many predictions about the economy and real estate prices in 2022, as there are every year. The heads in our company are prediction that by 2030 the average house price in the GTA will be over $2,000,000 (it already is in some areas). Predictions can be right or wrong similar to the weather. What we do know it that it is still an excellent market for both buyers and seller. This is not expected to change in the immediate future.


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