Carey and Sharon  Rosenzweig

Carey and Sharon Rosenzweig

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Brownridge Thornhill Vaughan 4th quarter real estate sales report 2019

Brownridge Thornhill Vaughan Real Estate

4th Quarter Market Analysis 2019

Detached, townhouses sold

  4th Quarter 2016 4th Quarter 2017 4th Quarter 2018 4th Quarter 2019  % 2017/16  % 2018/17 % 2019/18
House Sales 52 35 34 36 -33%  -3% +6%
Average Home Price $843,588 $838,326 $808,795 $809,744 -1%  -4% +.01%
Inventory 7 46 30 9 +557%  -35% -70%
New listings 59 104 53 38  +76% -49% -28%
Days on the Market 12 35 36 22 +192%  +3% -39%
% of asking vs. sold price 106% 99% 96% 99%  -7% -3% +3%

Ideally when we want to compare how a market is doing we should compare it to the same time period of another year, i.e. fall/winter market to fall/winter market. Therefore, we have to compare how this quarter of the year is doing compared to the last quarter of 2017. Traditionally the spring market is the best market of the year and the summer market gets slower due to it being a holiday time and kids being off school. The fall market usually picks up again as routines go back to normal.

When we look at the average number of sale, they increased on average by 2 homes sold from 34 homes to 36 homes.  The price appeared to decrease slightly by under $1,000 from $808,795 to $809,744. The average number of homes available for sale decreased from 30 homes on average to 9 homes, which is a difference of 21 homes, meaning there was very little choice available and there were on average about 15 less listings taken in this quarter than last year. The length of time it took to sell a home went down by 14 days and the percentage of selling price compared to the listing price increased by 3%, meaning houses sold for very close to asking price or over asking. They sold in only 22 days and for 99% of asking.

What does this mean? Well to us, it shows that the housing market has strengthened, even though prices did not have considerable growth all other factors moved in the right direction. In Brownridge the prices have not increased very much or even if there was no change in price, the prices did not drop.  Sales were up by 6%, inventory was down by 70% and new listings were down by 28%. This means that almost every house on the market sold. The house prices remained almost the same as last year but with almost no inventory there was not much time to sit around and deciding on a property. This meaning well priced homes sold and for close to asking. Houses sold in only 22 days which is a short amount of time to sell a house. Brownridge and other areas may have under gone a price adjustment in 2018 due to the many changes implemented by the government including Ontario fair housing; 20% down payment; foreign buyers tax (15% on foreign buyer); and the most recent stress test (needing to qualify for 2% more than mortgage rates) however i feel it is safe to say the market has turned.

We should look at Toronto's housing market the last quarter of 2018 and 2019 and compare it to Brownridge's  When we do this, we can see that 2018 showed a shift in the market. Sales were down by 16.1% in Toronto on average but only down by 3% here and housing prices were down by 4.3% in Toronto and similar in Brownridge at 4%. In the city more condo's sold and less detached larger homes sold. The second half of the year did better than the first half. The Toronto market was stronger than the surrounding GTA area. In Brownridge the price decreased to $808,795 which is a little higher than the Average housing price for the entire Toronto area which was $787,300.  In 2019 both Toronto and in Brownridge area of Thornhill, the real estate market seemed to have the same trend, prices were up by 4% in Toronto ($819,319) but only by .01% in this area ($809,744 slighly less than in T.O.). Sales were up by 12.6% in T.O. and 6% in Brownridge. New listings were down in both areas 2.4% in Toronto and 28% in this community.

Housing prices have recovered and for 2020 they can go up like a normal market by 4-6% or with the low inventory they could return to the hot market of bidding wars. But with more government intervention or increases in mortgage rates they could go down. For now we know that interest rates remain at a low rate and if they go up which I don't think they will, they are only suppose to go up slowly and slightly, however they could even drop further. Most houses are still selling and for very close to asking price. Houses are selling in a average time frame. We still have an excellent market for both buyers and seller. This is not expected to change in the immediate future.

Real estate has always remains a solid investment both to live in or to use as an investment for the long term. We always have dips and peaks. Why not get in now right after a dip? It is a good market, attractive to foreign investors, interest rates remain low and prices keep going up over the long term. 

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