Carey and Sharon  Rosenzweig

Carey and Sharon Rosenzweig

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The Valleys of Thornhill Vaughan 4Th house real estate sales report 2019



Patterson Vaughan Real Estate 4TH Quarterly Market Analysis 2019
Including: Valleys of Thornhill Thornberry Woods,  Thornhill Woods and Dufferin Hills

  4th Quarter 2016 4th Quarter 2017 4th Quarter 2018 4th Quarter 2019 % 2017/16 % 2018/17 % 2019/18
House Sales 202 110 125 140 -46% +14% +12%
Average Home Price $1,197,954 $1,243,955 $1,145,688 $1,171,364 +4% -8% +2%
Inventory 23 170 150 66 +639% -12% -56%
New Listings 257 451 355 193 +75% -21% -46%
Days on Market 12 23 27 29 +92% +17% +7%
% of Sold Price to Listing Price 104% 98% 99% 98% -6% +1% -1%

Real Estate Market Synopsis

Ideally when we want to compare how a market is doing we should compare it to the same time period of another year, i.e. fall market to fall market. Therefore, we have to compare how this quarter of the year is doing compared to the last quarter of 2017. Traditionally the spring market is the best market of the year, as I think this year's was and the summer market gets slower due to it being a holiday time and kids being off school. The fall/winter market usually picks up again as routines go back to normal, and our fall/winter market reflects this.

When we look at the average number of sale, they increased by about 12% from 125 sales to 140 sales; an increase of 15 homes on average sold. The average price also went up by 2 % from  $1,145,688 to $ 1,171,364.  Inventory and new listings both when down considerably in number. The average amount of new listings dropped by 46% from 355 to 193 and the inventory of listings dropped by  56% from 150 homes to 66 homes on average. This means a lot less inventory of homes and in turn a lot less choice. The length of time it took to sell a home went up by 2 days, from 27 days to 29 days and the percentage of selling price compared to the listing price decreased to 98%  from 99% meaning sellers did not get as close to asking. Usually when inventory or supply goes down prices go up, whichnit did, but I would have thought it would have gone up by a lot more.
What does this mean? Well to us, it means we no longer have that crazy market that we had in 2016. In 2017 prices still increased even though sales decreased. But new listings as well as inventory increased which alleviated the buying frenzy and bidding wars. There was more inventory. This year however, we definitely saw a market correction! In 2016 pricing a house was next to impossible as was buying a house, due to bidding wars and the over inflation it caused prices of homes to have. What we had in 2017 the industry was considering more of a normal market.  Prices were still up 4% (in a normal market houses increase by 4-6%). We had more inventory 4-5 houses per house sold. This meant consumers had a choice and they can take more time to decide on there purchase as opposed to rushing and feeling pressured to make a decision. Where as in 2018 we had slightly more sales, but prices were down; inventory of both new and active listings were down. Houses took longer to sell but they did sell a bit closer to asking price which could just mean they were priced better. What was the cause of the change in the market? Well, the government implement many changes since 2016, First in 2017 first time buyers needed 20% deposit to put down on a purchase instead of 10-15%. The government implemented a foreign buyers tax and as of Jan 2018 buyer need to be able to pass the new stress test. Buyers would have to be able to qualify to pay 2% above whatever the mortgage rate for the house was. So if rates were 3%, purchasers would have to qualify to pay 5%. This caused the housing prices to drop. Many buyers were just not qualifying to buy properties. 2019 the stress test was lowered to 1%, the pices started to increase slightly. Even though prices only increase by 2%, it at least increased, which was the first sign of the market going in a positive direction. Also supply went down which usually causes prices to increase.
So if you have been on the fence about buying a home or hoping that prices of homes would come down, now is your chance to get in on the market! The bottom has hit and with low inventory, I would expect to see prices of homes going up. Also if you own a condo (perhaps in the city where prices are still quite strong) now is a great time to sell and move north of the city and purchase the home you always wanted.  The 905 and north markets felt this market correction much more than areas in Toronto. Also interest rates remain at an incredible low rate and are not expected to increase by very much. With all the changes we went through and with all the government intervention the housing market is now at a long awaited break for many that were priced out of the market and the chance for many to enter to market or trade up. 

Real estate has always been a solid investment both to live in or to use as an investment for the long term. We always have dips and peaks. Why not get in now? It is a good market, attractive to foreign investors, interest rates remain low.  Don't you wish you had bought something at the prices of years past, now you can in some area that have had a correction in price, next year you may wish you bought now. Is now the right time for you to buy or sell? We have no idea what new things can still effects housing prices up or down. Prices right now are attractive to buyers and sellers can cash out if they are afraid of more changes to the market.

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